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The Covid-19 Pandemic 
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Isn't Nature Wonderful

Things have a way of balancing out in a sort of Darwinian way. The reason why this world is here is because if things didn't balance, it wouldn't be. Only the worlds that achieve this balance survive; and it's the same with the things on the Earth. We are only here because we are in balance with the things around us, otherwise we would have died out; and it's the same with viruses, or there wouldn't be any. Herd immunity, or population immunity as I prefer to call it as I don't like being called part of a herd, is our way of surviving things like viruses. Virus survive by becoming more infectious and not killing their hosts through mutation. The more infectious a mutated virus becomes, the greater the percentage needed to achieve population immunity. Mutations also help counter any host resistance built up from exposure to the previous version of the virus.

Instead of working with nature and gently nudging it in the direction you'd like it to go by encouraging the virus to do its thing as quickly as possible, amongst the people it has least affect on, and reaching that population immunity percentage figure before it has chance to mutate, you can choose to fight it and show it who’s boss. The result of this for the UK has been 75,431 dead (as of 4 Jan 21), an overwhelmed National Health Service, and at least 3 mutated viruses which will find further mutilation easier than the original if they are comprised of multiple shorter RNA strands.

Key to this strategy of proving man is greater than nature has been the lockdown, proven time and time again not to work. Look at a graph of daily deaths and try to guess when the lockdowns occurred. The daily deaths smoothly rise and fall like nature taking a breath, contemptuously ignoring man’s interventions. Key to our lockdown approach has been shielding the vulnerable by locking them in their homes with the infected, and ensuring new infections can be brought into the house by members of the household going to work, going to supermarkets and going to raves.

In response to lockdowns not working, the government has imposed another one, this time closing schools, even though the Office of National Statistics (ONS) say the infection rate amongst teachers is the same as for other key workers, which is slightly less than in the general population.

In response to 'flattening the curve to protect the health service’ not working; a strategy that has been as successful as lockdowns, the government continues to attempt to flatten the curve. Wards full of non-ICU sick that could have been treated at home with the proper support and resources continue to be crowded into hospitals. ‘Nightingale’ emergency hospitals have been set up without staff to run them. The strategy of isolating the elderly by telling them to stay in their room for a year has probably been the government’s greatest success.

We are nearly one year on from the 1st lockdown in March 2020 and there is still no strategy; no practical way to isolate the elderly from the virus, no plan or resources in place to make effective isolation happen, and seemingly no clue as to how to stop the death toll in the elderly from rising.

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Last edited by Beerman on Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:47 am, edited 2 times in total.



Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:44 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Vaccination in the UK

The UK has a problem. The Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine was approved for use in the UK on 30 Dec 20 and roll-out started on 4 Jan 21. Population (herd) immunity is central to the vaccination programme as it determines the end date of the pandemic, and indicates the rate at which vaccinations has to proceed if a target end date is set.

Agreeing the population immunity percentage needed to end the pandemic has been a matter of some debate amongst experts. Some have said 60% is needed, some 80%; the lockdown adviser to the government, Professor Neil Fergusson reckons it’s 95%, which is damn near everyone. The difference between the 60% min and 95% max figures is significant, over 23 million people.

It’s no clearer when it comes to knowing how far along the path to population immunity the UK has come. The UK government position is that current population immunity is only around 5%, others I’ve heard say believe we are over 50%, and some believe it varies from city to city; maybe only 10% in some areas in Wales and the North of England, but over 50% in London or the South West.

Some believe we may have achieved herd immunity for the original variant, but now the percentage required has increased due to the increased infectiousness of the new variant. To summarise, the experts haven’t got a clue. My view from gained from personal experience of the city where I live, is the city has achieved immunity. I say this because of the number of crowded events I’ve attended from November 2019 through to the 1st lockdown in March 2020, where so many had coughs and colds, including me. It’s hard to see how 60% of the people couldn’t have caught it, including me. I’ve self-isolated 3 times with Covid-like symptoms, surely one of them must have been the real thing.

The UK government has pre-ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine, enough to immunise 50 million people. Taking the government’s 5% figure for population immunity, these doses would achieve an 80% population immunity.

With ‘approval for use’ a formality, involving little more than a cursorily glance over trial data that they say had already been scrutinised during the trial, AstraZeneca has had time to productionise the vaccine to hit the ground running on the 4 Jan. Unfortunately this doesn’t appear to have happened, as initial vaccination rates have been, let’s say disappointing. With only 1.5 million vaccinated so far, of which maybe half were from the Pfizer vaccine, a revised target of 15 million has been set for mid February, requiring a 10 fold increase in production and roll-out.

An immediate target of 13 million vaccinations in the next 5 weeks has been set to get the programme back on course, which looks like the government is going for a steady-state rate of 10 million vaccinations per month. But remember, each person requires 2 jabs, so we need to be clear about terminology. If 2 jabs equal 1 vaccination, the 10 million vaccinations/month requires 20 million dose/month to be manufactured and injected into people’s arms. But the government seems to be equating 1 jab to 1 vaccination as the 1.5 million vaccinated so far have only had 1 jab. So the 10 million vaccinations per month target will only immunise 5 million people per month, that’s 10 months to immunise 50 million people to achieve 80% population immunity; and that’ assuming AstraZenica can increase production by 10-fold, the NHS can increase roll-out by 10-fold, there are no delays or hiccups, and the vaccine works on all mutations that comes its way over the next 10 months. Already concerns are being expressed over the South African Variant being resistant to the current vaccine.

Initially experts were saying the vaccine would end the pandemic by Spring. This seems to have been revised to Summer, and now some are saying Autumn. In my opinion, unless production and roll-out can be ramped up to 20 million doses/month, which at the moment only looks possible by securing doses of alternative vaccines like Sputnik V, and potentially the Johnson and Johnson and Novavax if they are approved, this epidemic is not only going to continue throughout 2021, but is likely to run into 2022, unless that is, the experts advising the government are wrong and we are close to population immunity. If that is the case, then it will die out naturally. I guess time will tell, but he problem we will have is, unless we can get the Covid mortality figures to reflect reality, i.e. deaths from Covid not deaths with Covid, and the same for hospitalisations, we will not know when it’s over.

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Last edited by Beerman on Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:51 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

I see the UK government have come clean at last and admitted the UK won't be fully vaccinated until the autumn. They haven't said October as such, but October is autumn. 'It'll all be over by Christmas' seems a reasonable assumption at this point, that is if new variants don't keep coming resulting in multiple vaccination programs running concurrently. The world is a big place to grow multiple coronavirus variants in.

One possible outcome which is looking increasing more likely based on case and death rates, is it will die out naturally, probably in the summer for the UK, before the UK vaccination program completes.

Another possibility is the variants increase and symptoms become less deadly and eventually it mutates into another common cold like coronavirus.

I'm not going to talk about the 3rd possibility.

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Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:34 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Here's a brief interview by Sky News with a politician who actually is speaking some sense for a change. I was so taken aback by this event that I felt I should post it.



The interviewer, just like the scientists and the political opposition try to force him into a corner to win the argument that lockdowns should continue until the coronavirus is no longer a threat, that every life should be saved, that not to do so would make you a genocidal murderer. I have noticed that people spouting this line of argument tend not to be financially affected by the lockdowns, like the scientists, politicians and newsreaders who conduct such interviews and the media executives who employ them. Perhaps when the furlough eventually ends, as one day it must, more will join the cry to reopen to avoid evictions and widespread poverty. Maybe this is time for a socialist intervention and a compulsory redistribution of income from those not affected by the lockdowns to those that are, so that the pain is felt evenly across society.

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Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:01 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

The Big Picture

Or to put it another way; measuring the Deaths from Covid-19 in terms of ‘Years Of Life Lost’ rather than mortality rates. Years Of Life Lost is not widely banded around because it seems somewhat heartless, that is because it is aimed at the needs of the many rather than the needs of the few or the one. It is a socialist metric needed to fund socialist institutions like the National Health Service where there is insufficient money to treat everyone in high demand years. It’s used by the doctors that determine who gets the operation, or who gets the drug treatment; and it’s used to achieve the balance with the funding of hospital beds or ICUs. It’s as Stalin said “a single death is a tragedy, a million deaths is a statistic", and society-level institutions like the NHS deal in cold statistics and national level funding. This quote was taken as an example of the heartlessness of socialism, and of Uncle Joe in particular, and perhaps there is some truth in that, but when you are faced with saving millions at the cost of losing thousands, it has to be like that. Then you have to decide who gets to be in the millions saved and who gets to be in the thousands lost, and Years Of Life Lost is one way of doing that. Adopting a system based on medical insurance is no less brutal, those that can afford it, regardless of age, get the potentially life-saving medical treatment they need, and those that cannot afford it don’t. The only way to avoid the choice would be to fund the NHS for maximum demand and have hospitals half empty most of the time.

The life expectancy in the UK is 81.52 years. It's calculated using formulas that calculate the life expectancy at birth, takes into account all the nasty things that might happen to you over your lifetime like disease, accidents, and being shot/stabbed/blown-up, and takes account of factors like environment, diet, poverty etc. I'm not sure if the figure it comes up with also takes genetics and ethnicity into account, but that's not important for now. As you get older, these things either happen to you or they don't, and if they don't, your life expectancy prediction gets longer. The retirement age in the UK is currently 66; life expectancy at birth would have been 70, but because those that have made it to 66 have survived all the stuff that life has thrown at them, their life expectancy is now 82. The people born today will have a life expectancy of 82, but by the time they get to 66 their life expectancy will probably be around 90, assuming the world survives that long. When we talk about a life expectancy of 82, we mean is there is a 50:50 chance of making it to 82, not that you will make it to 82. Someone who makes it to 82 then has a 50% chance to make it to 88, a 25% chance to make it to 92, and a 10% chance of making it to 100.

Doctors aren’t allowed to put ‘old age’ or ‘natural causes’ as the cause of death for people who die of old age anymore, so we now know the main things that get us in the end. The Leading Cause of Death in the UK for over 80s is Dementia and Alzheimer disease. This is because these diseases tend to take hold and accelerate in those over 80 leading to years of mental and physical decline; be careful what you wish for, if you wish to live to 100. For the under 80s, the leading cause of death is Congenital Heart Disease for men, and Cancer for women.

If we look at deaths from Covid-19 through the lens of Years Of Life Lost rather than the number of deaths, there is a different perspective to be had. There are about 66,800,000 people in the UK, of which 1,650,000 are over the UK life expectancy. These people, as loved as they are by the family and friends, are coming to the end of their lives, and each year around 530,000 in England and Wales will die, some of Covid-19, some with Covid-19, but most without Covid-19. As sad as that is, around 600,000 babies will come into the UK, so there is some sort of balance there. Deaths from Covid-19 are now in decline, but we have see bumps on the way down turn into new bumps on the way up before, probably due to new variants. Maybe this is the end of Covid-19, maybe we’ll get a new bump from a new variant, maybe the declining current bump will drop to almost zero like it did in the summer of 2020 and come back in the autumn, and maybe this is the cycle forevermore like the Flu, and it never goes away. If this is the case, Covid-19 might become the new leading Cause of Death that determines life expectancy, reducing the odds of living past 82 for the 1,650,000 over 82s in the UK.

The question is; if the Years of Life Lost due to Covid-19 is close to zero, how many Years of Life Lost are acceptable through unemployment, homelessness, poverty, and declining mental and physical health caused by the lockdowns that are destroying our society?

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Last edited by Beerman on Thu Feb 18, 2021 10:26 am, edited 2 times in total.



Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:49 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Quick Review

The UK vaccination programme officially started mid-Jan 21 and here we are in mid-Feb, so it's time for a quick review.

Initial government talk of a 10 million 1st jab target was not good, and would have written off much of 2021. The actual figure that has been achieved is 15 million jabs, which is well done, but short of the 20 million needed to vaccinate everyone in 2 tranches, by mid -July.

If it stays at 15 million until mid-April which is when those jabbed in Jan/Feb will need their 2nd jab, then only 45 million people will be fully vaccinated by mid-July, leaving 20 million still unvaccinated and free to incubate coronavirus variants, some of which may not be controlled by current vaccines. However if only 80% immunity is required to achieve herd immunity, the UK will only be 5 million short.

If only 80% immunity is needed, a rate of 15 million jabs a month almost cuts the mustard. However, if herd immunity is 95%, which is what some Imperial College London professors maintain, then the remaining 20 million unvaccinated will have had their 1st jab mid-July and their 2nd jab 6 weeks later, and everyone should be fully vaccinated by end-August, hopefully ending Covid-19 deaths 2 months earlier than first predicted under the 10 million jabs per month target. Whatever happens, 15 million jabs per month should be regarded as the minimum needed to end this thing by the autumn and the next flu season.

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Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:06 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Quote:
Evidence looks good on COVID vaccines cutting transmission: UK minister - Reuters 22 Feb 21

LONDON (Reuters) - The evidence indicates that vaccines are proving effective at cutting the transmission of COVID-19, Britain’s vaccines minister said on Monday ahead of a government announcement on a path out of lockdown.

“Suffice to say the evidence looks good,” Nadhim Zahawi told Sky News when asked if vaccines were effective at cutting infections and hospitalisations.

“We wouldn’t be in this place this morning to be able to say that we’re going to reopen schools on March 8, and ... as school holidays begin on March 29, we will look at the rule of six and two families being (able) to see each other outdoors ... if we’re not confident that actually the vaccine programme is beginning to really bear fruit.”


Politicians must think we are fools. They must think us to be little children they can manipulate. Daily cases in the UK hit their peak and started to fall on 9 Jan 21, well before the official start of the vaccination program in mid-Jan 21; a date they set in order to hide embarrassing real start date of beginning of Jan 21 where next to no one was vaccinated. Now we hear the sound of goalposts moving as they claim the vaccine is responsible for the decline in cases. Bearing in mind it takes 1 month for any immunity to kick-in, the affect of the vaccine on cases will only start to be registered mid-Feb, which is now. Daily cases have dropped from 68,000 to 10,000 without the vaccine. Apart from preventing more elderly deaths, the main role of the vaccine is to stop further UK mutations, and the start of another wave of elderly deaths.

Daily deaths peaked on 23 Jan 21 when they reached 1,820; they are now at 445 with the curve suggesting they will reach zero around June 2021; without the vaccine.

Politicians not only make themselves look stupid with statements like this, but also arrogant in that it shows they think they are more intelligent than us, when of course they consistently demonstrate they are less so.

Latest UK Covid figures; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

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Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:02 pm
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Quick Monthly Review for Mid Mar 21

As of Mid-March the UK has achieved 25 million 1st jabs and nearly 2 million 2nd jabs, or to put it another way, 10 million 1st jabs since Mid-Feb and 2 million 2nd jabs, making a total of 12 million jabs from Mid-Feb to Mid-Mar. This is being hailed s a success, but it isn’t as it slips the 80% immunity date to Mid-October 2021 and the 100% end date to Mid-December 2021.

They have announced that Mid-Apr will be used solely for 2nd jabs to let them catch up with the numbers of 1st jabs administered. I suspect they will announce (although they haven’t yet) something similar for Mid-May to achieve equal numbers of people who have had 1st and 2nd jabs. They’ll then proceed at 6 million 1st jabs and 6 million 2nd jabs a month until all the jabs are done.

I suspect the programme to achieve 80% immunity in the UK (55 million vaccinated of the 68 million people in the UK) is going to look something like this, by:

Mid-Mar, 25 million 1st jabs and 2 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-Apr, 25 million 1st jabs and 14 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-May, 25 million 1st Jabs and 25 million 2nd jabs = 37% population fully vaccinated
Mid-June, 31 million 1st Jabs and 31 million 2nd jabs = 45% population fully vaccinated
Mid-July, 37 million 1st Jabs and 37 million 2nd jabs = 54% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Aug, 43 million 1st Jabs and 43 million 2nd jabs = 63% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Sep , 49 million 1st Jabs and 49 million 2nd jabs = 70% population fully vaccinated
Mid- Oct, 55 million 1st Jabs and 55 million 2nd jabs = 80% population fully vaccinated

And to get 100% people vaccinated, just in case it turns out that 95% of the population is required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity (unlikely);

Mid-Nov, 61 million 1st Jabs and 61 million 2nd jabs = 90% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Dec, 67 million 1st jabs and 67 Million 2nd jabs = 100% population fully vaccinated

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Last edited by Beerman on Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:08 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Blood Clotting caused by Vaccination

There’s been a lot of concern about the AstraZeneca vaccine causing blood clots, indeed, the EU has paused its roll-out over these concerns. Despite the EU now stating it is safe, many EU countries are hesitant to proceed with nation-wide vaccinations programs. Even if they did, many of their citizens would decline it if it were offered.

If you’ve read this thread you’ll know I’ve been critical of the way these vaccines have been secretly developed, quality assured, tested and approved; as have many others, if the scepticism towards their safety declaration is to be believed.

I’ve been critical of trials focused on trivial side-effects like muscle aches, headaches and sore arms, instead of the big issues like infiltration into the cell nucleus, cancer or any number of other serious, and life-threatening complaints arising from the lack of understanding of the microbiology involved.

I’ve been critical of research focused on the interaction between the vaccine and the coronavirus, but until we understand how the vaccines interact with the body, we will continue to be in the dark as to the long term consequences of coronavirus vaccines.

I’ve been critical of the party line adopted by the medical profession establishment. Doctors appear on the television, in YouTube’s, in newspaper interviews, where they recite reassuring propaganda as if they were politicians. This group is now so discredited due to their inaccurate modelling, inability to estimate herd immunity, inability to develop a reliable antigen test, poor advice to government on lockdowns and mask wearing, inability to explain the nature and cause of covid-19 waves; the list of failures just goes on.

What I have been critical about of late is the medical and political cover-up of vaccine generated blood clots; another example of our complete lack of understanding of the microbiology, or the lesions that need to be drawn from it.

What it’s not about

It's not about being an anti-vaxer.

It's not about the AstraZenica vaccine causing blood clots, I believe all the vaccines, including the RNA vaccines, have the potential to do the same.

It’s not about the vaccine causing blood clots as a side effect of the vaccination, it’s about establishing an antibody in our adaptive immune system that has the potential to attack our blood platelets, causing them to release large amounts of Factor-4 clotting agent; and this may well happen every time we are exposed to the coronavirus.

It’s not about the small number of people that have suffered, and some have died from blood clotting, it’s about how close the coronavirus spike protein that the vaccine replicates, is to platelet Factor-4 clotting agent. So close that in a very small number of cases, the antibodies of vaccinated people are attaching themselves to the Factor-4 causing them to send platelets into overdrive to produce more clotting agent.

What it is about

What it is about is the microbiology and how if we are not careful, variations in booster vaccines to combat variants in the coronavirus could turn the currently small number of people that are experiencing clotting, into a large number of people that end up experiencing clotting, potentially whole populations of countries. I mentioned earlier in this thread that I believe we are playing with fire, simply because of the scale of what we are doing and how cavalier we seem to be about it. This antibody is a species level addition to the human immune system. Should we introduce a modified antibody, designed to tackle a coronavirus variant, that ends up attacking our blood whenever they are released; which could be for the rest of our lives if the virus never goes away, then we are really going to regret not spending a little more time to understand the microbiology, especially when the epidemic is basically coming to an end naturally.

The current vaccines look like they present a blood clotting risk to a very small percentage of vaccinated people. These few people probably had something odd looking about their platelet Factor-4 that made it look attractive to the coronavirus antibodies. But we must bear in mind that there may be many more people out there with similarly odd looking platelet Factor-4 that may be affected by clotting on re-exposure to the virus in the future. We need to know what is attracting the antibodies to the Factor-4 and be able to test vaccine recipients for Factor-4 antibody binding before they get the jab.

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Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:04 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

I should add the source for the above post, it's from a YouTube posted by Dr Mobeen Syed who reviews a German preprint research paper entitled 'A Prothrombotic Thrombocytopenic Disorder Resembling Heparin-Induced Thrombocytopenia Following Coronavirus-19 Vaccination'. It's based on 9 patients who experienced blood clotting, 4 of which died.

A link to the paper is in the YouTube comments section. I found some of the comments attached to the paper quite interesting and worth checking out. One comment suggested there would not be time for the vaccine antibodies to cause the clotting, but if it were caused by another antibody and not by the vaccination, then where could they have come from? If they were already in the immune system, then why did the antibodies wait for the vaccination before acting?

The conclusion that the blood clotting problem applies to all vaccines not just AstraZeneca is mine, not the researchers. But the researchers declare financial support from other vaccine manufacturers, so there is a conflict of interest there. If the cause of attraction of the vaccine antibodies to the Factor-4 is it's shape, and it's shape is that of the coronavirus spike, then how could other vaccines resist this attraction?

Here's the video, it's 19 minutes long but the 1st 11 minutes talk about avoiding using the Heparin blood thinner as a treatment for this clotting, as it too can combine with the Factor-4 and spur another antibody immune response. If you just want to hear about the vaccine blood clotting, you won't miss much joining the video at the 11 minute mark.


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Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:25 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

I’m repeatedly hearing doctors and politicians on the telly saying that the number of people suffering from blood clots from the AstraZeneca vaccine is tiny in comparison with the number vaccinated; roughly 30 people have suffered blood clots in the UK from 30 million 1st doses, or 3 in a million. What they are not saying is that most of the clotting patients are women under 50, and that hardly any under 50 year olds, men or women, have been vaccinated yet. I’ve looked for a figure, but I couldn’t find one published. I’m going to be a bit silly here but if only 30 first doses have been given to women under 50 and they all died from clots, then the mortality rate would be 100%

It’s bit like saying the death rate from Covid-19 is 0.2% (1,862 deaths/million), by dividing the UK’s 126,882 deaths by its 68.19 million population, when nearly all the deaths are in people over 75, so the realistic death rate is 126,882 divided by 4.7 million not 68.19 million, which is 27,000 deaths per million, i.e. 2.7% of our elderly have died with Covid-19 (not necessarily from Covid-19). Expressing it as a percentage of the overall population is meaningless if the disease hardly affect the overall population.

They are also not saying that 40% of those suffering blood clots die, and if the cause of the clotting is the antibodies attacking the blood’s platelets, then there will be a chance of clotting every time they are released upon reinfection, so the death toll could climb over the years if the virus is not eradicated.

Quote:
...most of the patients in Europe who developed a rare blood clot after vaccination with AstraZeneca were women under age 55, and the fatality rate among those who develop clots is as high as 40 per cent.


ref: https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/wha ... 57g6q.html

What I find worrying, is statements like this:

Quote:
Europe’s drug regulator reiterated there was “no evidence that would support restricting the use of this vaccine in any population”, though an expert said more brain clots were being reported than would be expected, and the regulator says it continues to investigate.


A vaccine should only been used once there is evidence to show it is safe, i.e. evidence is needed to undertake an action. The continued use of a vaccine that is raising safety concerns on the basis that there is no evidence to suggest it is not safe is quite frankly outrageous and unscientific.

I’m beginning to wonder from my layman’s non-doctor perspective, if the reason why so many who have had Covid-19 and have not produced antibodies, but instead relied upon the innate immune system to fight off the disease, have done so because the body will not naturally create antibodies that would attack itself. Has it sensed an antibody would be too close a fit to a blood platelet? I’ve not seen any evidence of this in terms of published papers, but I have more faith in the body than in your average pharmaceutical company.

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Last edited by Beerman on Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:53 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

UK clinical trial for a nasal spray for covid - amazing results

Phase 2 clinical trials show Nitric Oxide (not to be confused with nitrous oxide or laughing gas), nasal spray reduces viral load by 95% in 24 hours. Worth mentioning the side effects: https://www.drugs.com/sfx/nitric-oxide-side-effects.html I don't know if the nasal spray addresses them.

One side affect of particular concern for me is thrombocytopenia, which is when you do not have enough blood platelets. This is a symptom that may be associated with the potential AstraZeneca vaccine clotting issue, where so many platelets get clotted together that it leaves a shortage of free platelets elsewhere in the blood. Whether or not nitric oxide interacts negatively with the vaccine I don't know, but mention of thrombocytopenia triggers alarm bells. If it were safe, it would address the concerns I have about mask wearing increasing the viral load for those who already have the virus.

Interesting point about the video, at 5 min 22s Dr Syed talks of having past videos taken down or demonitised that don't comply with YouTube's stance on Covid-19; talk about multinational corporation censorship.


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Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:11 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Here's the last review from mid-March

Quote:
Mid-Mar, 25 million 1st jabs and 2 million 2nd jabs.
Mid –Apr, 25 million 1st jabs and 14 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-May, 25 million 1st Jabs and 25 million 2nd jabs = 37% population fully vaccinated
Mid-June, 31 million 1st Jabs and 31 million 2nd jabs = 45% population fully vaccinated
Mid-July, 37 million 1st Jabs and 37 million 2nd jabs = 54% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Aug, 43 million 1st Jabs and 43 million 2nd jabs = 63% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Sep , 49 million 1st Jabs and 49 million 2nd jabs = 70% population fully vaccinated
Mid- Oct, 55 million 1st Jabs and 55 million 2nd jabs = 80% population fully vaccinated


Mid-April Review

Mid-Apr, 27 million 1st jabs and 7 million 2nd jabs = 10% population fully vaccinated

The take up of 2nd jabs has been terrible. Just 7 million of the 14 million people have come forward to get it. It looks like 2 of those million unused 2nd jabs have gone to the queue waiting for their 1st jab. Why they haven't called more forward I don't know, maybe they are hoping more will come forward for their 2nd jab. It puts the program in bit of a pickle. How long do you hold on to 2nd jabs in the hope those needing them will come forward? Do you assume a 50% 2nd jab take-up from now on? If you use 50% of 2nd jabs on 1st jab people, you might run out of vaccine for 2nd jabs.

If there is only a 50% take-up of 2nd jabs, then we could be looking at something like this;

Mid-Apr, 27 million 1st jabs and 7 million 2nd jabs = 10% population fully vaccinated
Mid-May, 34 million 1st Jabs and 14 million 2nd jabs = 20% population fully vaccinated
Mid-June, 41 million 1st Jabs and 21 million 2nd jabs = 30% population fully vaccinated
Mid-July, 48 million 1st Jabs and 28 million 2nd jabs = 40% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Aug, 55 million 1st Jabs and 35 million 2nd jabs = 50% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Sep , 70 million 1st Jabs and 35 million 2nd jabs = 50% population fully vaccinated

The bad news

- Only 50% of the population would be fully vaccinated.
- 50% is well short of the 80% needed for herd immunity.
- If the 2nd jab picks up again, the vaccine could run out as too many people will have had their 1st jab and be in the queue for their 2nd.

The good news

- The program would end a month early by mid-September.
- The UK has probably achieved herd immunity already without the vaccine.
- If only 60% of the population is needed to achieve herd immunity, and some experts say it is, then the UK would only be 10% short by mid-August.
- If there is another wave, most of the elderly had had their 1st jab and 50% will have had their 2nd.
- One jab might be good enough.
- You might be able to mix vaccines if the AstraZenica runs out (there are studies currently going on to check this out).

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Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:18 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Here's an interesting video on efficacy rates and why you can't compare rates between vaccines done at different times during the outbreak; basically because if you do the efficacy trial early in the pandemic, when the hospitalised and fatally ill are relatively small, you get a higher efficacy rate than if you do the trial during the epidemic's peak period. You also can't comapre rates unless you repeat the trial in all the countries that took place in the 1st trial. None of this has really been explained, which is quiet annoying and I'm sure has affected roll-out of the vaccine and vaccine hesitancy, as has the vague explanation of what the efficacy number actually means; and it's why I'm posting this video to explain it.

The video also explains why the AstraZeneca vaccine for example keeps having its efficacy changed by new data from new trials. At the end of March 2021, a US trial presented new data that lowered its efficacy from 79% to 76%, but no one mentioned why, i.e. because the outbreak was at a different stage and in a different country to those that hosted the stage 3 trials. Had they had re-trialled the Pfizer vaccine during the peak of the outbreak in the US, or in another country like Brazil, I suspect it would have been significantly lower that the 90% figure; I would guess closer to the AstraZeneca figure.

To make matters worse (or better depending on how you look at it), the same US trial showed increased efficacy in the over 65s, the most vulnerable group, from 80% to 85%. Why this confusion has been left to grow and fester into untrustworthiness I don’t know; maybe to sell more US vaccines.

My understanding is that the 76% efficacy of the AstraZeneca vaccine means that you only have 24% chance of catching it. If you don’t catch it, you can’t pass it on, so it really impacts transmission, which really affects the transmission factor (r number), which lowers the % needed to achieve herd immunity. If you are unlucky and do catch it, bearing in mind 75% of infected people you bump into won’t give you it, then it will be either asymptomatic and you may not even know you’ve been infected, or no worse that a cold. So far no one that has been vaccinated has been hospitalised or died from Covid-19, of it has an efficacy rate of 100% in thing that matter.



Just to add; really good news about the 1st rave allowed to go ahead in Liverpool. 1000s of maskless youngsters rubbing against each other and catching diseases, but hopefully not covid-19. This experiment should finally prove once and for all that it's over in the UK and we can stop all this mask wearing and social distancing that's destroying our economy and social interaction.


https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/thousa ... 021-04-30/



Shame about the music

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Sun May 02, 2021 2:31 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Here's the last review from mid-April, noting that March's predictions were revised downward to take into account the dramatic drop in vaccination rates during April;

Quote:
Mid-Apr, 27 million 1st jabs and 7 million 2nd jabs = 10% population fully vaccinated
Mid-May, 34 million 1st Jabs and 14 million 2nd jabs = 20% population fully vaccinated
Mid-June, 41 million 1st Jabs and 21 million 2nd jabs = 30% population fully vaccinated
Mid-July, 48 million 1st Jabs and 28 million 2nd jabs = 40% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Aug, 55 million 1st Jabs and 35 million 2nd jabs = 50% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Sep , 70 million 1st Jabs and 35 million 2nd jabs = 50% population fully vaccinated


Mid-may Review

Mid-May, 36 million 1st jabs and 19 million 2nd jabs = 28% population fully vaccinated

This is great news. It suggests the low April take-up of 2nd jabs has was a blip. 12 million 1st jabbers have come forward to get fully vaccinated. Only 9m new 1st jabbers were jabbed but that's what you'd expect, as the vaccine went to the 2nd jabbers. This puts the UK back on track, and we can switch back to the March prediction.

Back in March I predicted by Mid-May, we'd have 34 million 1st Jabs, we've achieved 36 million; 2 million jabs ahead of target. But the real achievement is the 19 million 2nd jabs, a whopping 5 million ahead of the predicted target. The result of which is the UK is now 28% fully vaccinated, not 20%

Revised 'back on track' Prediction

Mid-Mar, 25 million 1st jabs and 2 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-Apr, 27 million 1st jabs and 7 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-May, 36 million 1st Jabs and 19 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-June, 36 million 1st Jabs and 31 million 2nd jabs = 45% population fully vaccinated
Mid-July, 42 million 1st Jabs and 37 million 2nd jabs = 54% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Aug, 48 million 1st Jabs and 43 million 2nd jabs = 63% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Sep , 54 million 1st Jabs and 49 million 2nd jabs = 70% population fully vaccinated
Mid- Oct, 60 million 1st Jabs and 55 million 2nd jabs = 80% population fully vaccinated

Holiday Variants

I'm a bit at a loss to understand why the UK government is allowing foreign holidays before the UK is at least 60% fully vaccinated. If a vaccine-effective variant is brought back, it may not seriously hurt anyone, but it will increase infection rates among the unvaccinated, and even among those that have been vaccinated as no vaccine is 100% effective. OK, all the elderly and those with pre-existing medical condition are now fully vaccinated, so they’re safe, but there is still a small chance of catching a mild or asymptomatic case of Covid and all this is going to push the infection rate statistics up, and you know what the government is like; it could put the UK's return to normality in jeopardy.

I hope those going on holiday are not the pro-maskers and the social distancing Karan's. It would be pretty hypocritical of them to preach lockdown at home, put businesses out of business, and then go abroad to bring something back.

Then there's always the chance of bringing back a vaccine-resistant variant, in which case it would be a case of 'here we go again', but to avoid that would mean vaccinating the world as quickly as possible, and there's be no profit in that as most are too poor to pay.

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Fri May 14, 2021 10:59 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Well, the UK government have put back the lifting of all restrictions by 1 month, effectively delaying the reopening of the entertainment sector by said amount. Gigs, theatre productions, comedy shows, not to mention most small pubs that are not big enough to socially distance, are all on the verge of going bust; many have already. Am I surprised? Nope, I trust nobody else was either. The decision follows a trend of a government held hostage by the medical establishment and the political opposition that would pounce should 1 person die as a result of the economy opening up. Neither the medical establishment nor the opposition politicians have anything to lose if all these livelihoods are destroyed. The medical profession in particular can afford to demand 0% risk, safe in the knowledge that they are going to get paid at the end of the month regardless. Maybe they shouldn't. Maybe they should receive unemployment benefit instead of their wages until the restrictions are lifted, just so they can experience the joy of living on welfare. Yeah, I know; like that's going to happen.

So let’s look at the actual mid-June vaccination figures;

Mid-Jun, 42 million 1st jabs and 30 million 2nd jabs = 45% population fully vaccinated.

The prediction for mid June was;

Mid-June, 36 million 1st Jabs and 31 million 2nd jabs = 45% population fully vaccinated

So, well ahead of target for 1st jabs, and bang on target for the important 2nd jabs, with the percentage of UK population fully vaccinated achieving its 45% target.

Revised Prediction

Mid-Mar, 25 million 1st jabs and 2 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-Apr, 27 million 1st jabs and 7 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-May, 36 million 1st Jabs and 19 million 2nd jabs.
Mid-June, 42 million 1st Jabs and 30 million 2nd jabs = 45% population fully vaccinated
Mid-July, 50 million 1st Jabs and 38 million 2nd jabs = 57% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Aug, 58 million 1st Jabs and 46 million 2nd jabs = 70% population fully vaccinated
Mid-Sep , 67 million 1st Jabs and 54 million 2nd jabs = 80% population fully vaccinated
Mid- Oct, 67 million 1st Jabs and 67 million 2nd jabs = 100% population fully vaccinated

The government has been consistantly advised by the 'establishment' medical profession, that the public has few antibodies, and herd immunity is low; far lower than the 'non-establishment' medical profession predicted it was. Members of the public like myself, saw the colds and flu-like symptoms spread like wildfire back in 2020 before the lockdowns began and instinctively knew the herd immunity must be higher than the advisors were saying. Needless to say who was listened to and who was ignored, so the population fully vaccinated figures the government would work with, assumed low herd immunity. In other words, 0% risk. So it was no surprise that the full lifting of restrictions was going to be put back to mid-July when the population is predicted to reach around 60% 2nd dose vaccination and will have achieve herd immunity. Mid-June was never going to happen in my opinion, the medical profession would have advised that with only 45% herd immunity it would be too risky, i.e. it wouldn't be zero risk, and what choice would Boris have had? But then came along the new Indian variant, or D-variant as it's being called, which has been a good excuse for continuing the restrictions that they intended to continue all along.

A few more figures;

Daily testing 1,052,222

Daily cases: 7,742

Daily deaths: 3

Daily deaths from road accidents in 2020: 4.36

Daily hospitalisations: 187

Daily Finished Admission Episodes 2018-19: 46,850

Daily Adult Critical Care 2018-19: 799

What I find disgraceful are the medical advisors to the government twisting the medical reality into narratives that ensure their obsessive 0% risk outcome. They talk about the vaccine being less effective against the coronavirus D-variant, but leave out they are referring to it transmissibility, not the severity of symptoms or outcome. When they refer to its increased transmissibility, they leave out the bit that it doesn't matter if you are over 60 and fully vaccinated, which everyone over 60 is, along with those with pre-existing medical conditions. They also mislead on the nature of vaccines and their purpose. As I discussed in an earlier post, the nature of vaccines is not to stop you catching the virus; it' to stop it hurting you when you do. Their purpose is to kill off the virus through herd immunity, and if it mutates like common colds and influenza do, then you get a jab every year, like everyone over 65 in the UK does anyway. It's called living with the virus, something we have to do with SARS-2.

What we are seeing now in the UK is entirely consistent with us 'living with it'. The vaccines are around 75% effective, which is well above the 50% of flu vaccines. That means you sit next to someone with Covid-19, there’s a 25% chance you'll catch it and a 0% chance it'll kill you, and a 95% chance it won't hospitalise you. The young person you catch it from will probably be asymptomatic as will you be if you're under 40, and you'll probably think you've caught a cold if you're over 40.

If it mutates and become vaccine resistant, then we have the antibodies to build upon. We don't start the new vaccine from scratch; it will probably just need a tweak. If you want to avoid vaccine resistant variants, then control the UK boarders until the rest of the world is vaccinated; which was another G7 missed opportunity. The G7 is where 7 nations who think they are the richest and most important nations in the world; 8 if you include the EU, roll up to agree a narrative to use against Russia, China and whoever else is on the US naughty list. They are meant to do other things, but rarely do. This time round, headed by the US and faced with solving the world’s vaccination crisis, between them they couldn’t do any better than to offer 1 billion of the 11 billion vaccine doses the WHO say the world needs to kill this thing. That's about 100 million doses each; it's basically what they had going spare and would have thrown away anyway. The top 7 self-proclaimed richest countries in the world plus the EU, couldn't bring themselves to actually pay for, manufacture and distribute, and vaccinate 11 billion doses to rid the world of this thing; even knowing that by not doing so, it could mutate and come back and get them again; such is greed.

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Tue Jun 15, 2021 10:26 am
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