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The Covid-19 Pandemic 
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Rumours are the UK is going into another national lockdown. Announcement is expected on Monday 2 Nov, lockdown to start Wednesday 4 Nov. None of the shielding for the vulnerable has been put in place, no delivery medical care in the home. I'm not sure any lessons have been learnt from the 1st wave. I'm hoping that we have enough herd immunity now in the UK for it not to matter too much. If that's the case, then the impact will be more economic than on heath.


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Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:25 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Headline - Coronavirus antibodies start to decrease 'within 2 to 3 months' following COVID-19 infection

This was the reported one-liner that came out of the REACT Imperial Collage London report in published earlier this month.



The study ran from June to September 2020 and tested 365,000 people; once at the beginning middle, and end of the period found that 6% had antibodies in June, and this had fallen by 1.6% to 4.4% by September. In the over 75s, 39% had lost some antibodies compared with only 15% of 18-24 year olds, and that the number of people testing positive dropped by 26.5% across the study period, from almost 6% to 4.4%.

The 2 main conclusions drawn from this report that was headed up by Professor Paul Elliot, and advisor to the Government and proponent of lockdown and opponent to herd immunity was; natural immunity fades and by inference, herd immunity may never be achieved.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/coronavirus-antibody-prevalence-falling-england-react/?source=techstories.org

I was so disappointed by this biased conclusion that I was going to write my own, starting with; this tells us nothing we didn’t already know, and certainly nothing senior scientists in the epidemiological world who advocate achieving herd immunity as a strategy to defeat the Coronavirus and oppose lockdowns didn’t already know.

The conclusions deliberately ignore other component parts of the immune system, the parts that are key to achieving herd immunity. I say deliberately because obviously the role of Natural Killer Cells and Killer T-Cells is well known to every doctor. The conclusions in particular ignore the role of Memory T-Cells and omit to mention antibody fade is perfectly natural with Coronavirus, and doesn’t matter because we have the memory cells to make them when we need them. Memory T-Cells have been shown to be active 20 years after the outbreak of SARS-Cov-1. Not taking all elements of the immune system into account and failing to mention the immune system process and role of memory cells in the conclusions must have been to deliberately mislead and support Imperial Collage’s stance on lockdowns.

I say this was nothing new as back in June 2020 researchers in China found that after 3 months, 24 of 37 symptomatic people (80%) and 23 of 37 symptomatic patients (62%), had reduction in Covid-19 antibodies. 15 of asymptomatic people (40%) and 5 of the symptomatic people had antibodies fall to undetectable levels.

Back in June/July, a Kings Collage London study that followed on from a Spanish study, that antibodies started to fade within 2 to 3 weeks and in some people were undetectable by 3 months. The study of 90 patients found that while battling COVID-19, 36 had no detectable antibodies (40%) and 54 did (60%), but only 15 (17%) had the same level of potency three months later. The potency of the antibodies fell by as much as 23 times over the three months, and in some cases were undetectable at the end of the study.

The REACT study was needed to confirm the results of these small sample studies with a well run large one, but its conclusions are wrong. They have been written to support the position of Imperial Collage London who have invested heavily in lockdown strategy, and now find themselves painted into a corner. So rather than me rant on about what the conclusions should have been, I’ll let Dr John Campbell do the work for me. Not a great fan of some of his opinions, especially on flattening the curve and his pro-mask stance, but his Vitamin D videos have been excellent, and he’s bang on with this study’s conclusions too.


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Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:42 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Spain Prediction Revisited

A few posts back around the middle of Oct, I looked at the daily cases for Spain and based on the curve made a few predictions

Quote:
If we look at the total cases in Spain and we extrapolate the curve to reach horizontal in January 2021, then we can estimate total of 1,300,000 cases signalling the end of the 2nd wave. Currently Spain is at around 982,000 cases, so 318,000 cases to go.


Quote:
If we look at the Total Deaths chart, and we draw a vertical line to show the end date of end January 2021, and we assume a near horizontal approach to this end point as herd immunity increases, then we get a predicted most likely death toll of 40,000, with a maximum of 45,000.


If you look at Spain's Daily New Cases chart today; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/

You’d be forgiven for saying WTF. You'll see the curve heading down as predicted, then on 19 Oct, whoosh! Why? Or more to the point, why aren't the medical experts telling us why? Further more, for the 1st time the pattern in the data seems lost, it goes down when the trend is up and then goes back to the upward trend. Why?

If all medical experts are going to contribute is to look at growing numbers of cases and sagely declare lockdowns when they get to an arbitrary level, then what are we paying them for? Anyone can do that.

Why haven't they explained why the new cases and deaths went to almost zero, and why the 2nd wave of cases started afterwards?

Why haven't they explained why the 1st wave curve of Daily New Cases and Daily New Deaths are smooth and predictable and seem quite unaffected by government interventions like mask wearing and lockdowns?

Moving on to the UK

Same questions;

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Why did the new cases and deaths go down to almost zero between July and mid Sep and why did the 2nd wave start?

Some have sighted the 'Eat Out To Help Out' initiative which brought millions out to mix and mingle in restaurants and pubs, as being the cause of the 2nd wave in the UK. But this 2nd wave pattern is repeated in Spain, France and Italy and they didn't have such a scheme.

Why are the 1st wave curves of Daily New Cases and Daily New Deaths in the UK smooth and predictable just like Spain, France and Italy?

Why do these curves in all of these countries seem quite unaffected by government interventions?

When will there be an acknowledgement that trajectories of cases and deaths remain unaffected by lockdowns?

The UK is currently in lockdown. If the curves remain unaffected, will the medical advisors finally admit lockdowns have no affect on the spread or outcomes of the virus?

One UK minister actually said that if the current lockdown didn't work they may have to introduce another. I mean, give me a break.

One explanation for the higher Daily New Deaths we are seeing is the incorrect inclusion of Deaths With Covid-19. Only Deaths From Covid-19 should be reported. If this is what is indeed happening then it must be sorted out if we are ever to know if this pandemic is over, even if it means a post mortem on ever person tested with Covid-19 to confirm it was the cause of death.

Needless to say; until we have some answers, predictions as to when this will end, if ever, are not worth making, even if the Daily New Cases for the UK looks like it has peaked. It might do a Spain next week and take off again.

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Sun Nov 08, 2020 2:02 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

From outside a pub in Nailsea, now locked down now again of course, but an important message nevertheless

Image

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Wed Nov 11, 2020 11:43 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

The Pfizer Vaccine

Quote:
Britain expects to roll out Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine before Christmas

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain expects to start rolling out the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine just before Christmas if it is declared safe and effective, health minister Matt Hancock said on Monday.

“We’re working very closely with the company,” he told BBC TV. “We’ll be ready to roll it out as soon as it comes, we’ll be ready from the first of December..., but more likely is that we may be able to start rolling it out before Christmas.”

Asked how many vaccines Britain would need, he said it depended on how effective they were at preventing transmission - Reuters 16 Nov 20


Vaccines normally work by getting the body to generate antibodies that fit onto and block a virus’s receptors so that it can't attach itself to the cell and infect it. Some work by identifying the virus and releasing antibodies to kill it directly. The Pfizer vaccine is different as it allows the cell to become infected, then it stops it reproducing inside the cell. This is novel and the speed to confirm its safeness is in my opinion a cause for concern.

The nucleus of a cell naturally generates Massager RNA (mRNA) which moves into the main body of the cell and controls the protein manufacturing process. The vaccine generates mRNA directly in the body of the cell and gets the cell to produce an antibody protein that will stop the coronavirus multiplying.

This vaccine is genetically engineered, it can potentially affect every cell in the body, and it messes with the body's natural protein generating mechanism.

I have not seen anything yet on studies looking in to the long term probability and impact of this genetically engineered mRNA mutating, potentially distorting the cell's natural protein manufacturing process, or not switching off and becoming cancerous. Instead, studies seem to have focused on pain in the injection site, redness and swelling, along with the onset of fever, fatigue and chills. This is so novel and I suggest controversial, that here is no current medical use approval from this type of vaccine. As of 12 Nov 20 Pfizer are still seeking Emergency Use Authorisation for the use of this vaccine and they have 50 million doses ready for release by the end of the year, with 1.3 Billion doses ready during 2021; so this is big business and the first biotech company to get it out there, takes it all.

I’m not saying the Pfizer Vaccine is not safe, I’m saying it looks like its safety assessment is being rushed in order to get it rolled out by Christmas to secure long term lucrative contracts and that its long term safety has yet to be confirmed and peer reviewed.



"Would you take it Dr Fauci? Well, I trust Pfizer, I trust the FDA"



The question is do you trust big money not to influence Pfizer's data and the FDA

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Mon Nov 16, 2020 11:45 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

This video gets relevant at 5:38 where Professor Heneghan pretty much confirms why I haven't seen any evidence relating to the safety or efficacy of this Pfizer vaccine; it's because they haven't published any, which means none of the claims for the vaccine are peered reviewed. Peer review is important because the multinationals making the vaccines have a vested interest to get it approved and rolled out, and the institutions like the FDA that approve it, may be in the pocket of the multinationals. It's doctors like Professor Heneghan and his independent non-establishment peers that are our line of defence against false or unproven claims.

The Moderna Vaccine

Claims for its sister vaccine made by Moderna are even more alarming. It's as if the two companies are in a bidding war to outdo the other to win the first past the post prize. Both use the same novel and controversial approach of producing mRNA, but the Moderna can be stored at -20c whereas the Pfizer vaccine requires -80c; we need explanations as to why. Has safety been traded off for higher storage temperature? It can't have been traded off for lower efficacy, because the Moderna vaccine claims 94% efficacy against Pfizer's 90%. Even the efficacy is unclear, efficacy against what; infection, reduction in deaths, reduction in hospitalisations? Is it effective for all ages and with asymptomatics?


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Last edited by Beerman on Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:24 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

The Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine

This sounds like a more conventional, less novel, safer vaccine that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines which mess about with your cell messenger RNA. The UK has ordered 100 million doses for the UK, but plans are to make 3 billion doses available to the world once it’s in full production. It’s currently awaiting stage 3 trials, so no counting chickens before they are hatched,

Quote:
“Stephen Evans, a professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, cautioned that no conclusions about the efficacy of the vaccine should be drawn until the data had been published.”


But, stage 2 trials have produced some excellent results with elderly producing as many antibodies as the young. If all goes well, and it’s confirmed effective and safe, it’s expected to be rolled out mid 2021 (I’d ignore the optimistic claims in the newspapers that it’ll be ready by Christmas). Phase 3 trials are also expected to confirm whether it prevents infection which is needed to stop the spread.

Information on how it works is a bit sketchy at the moment so I’m awaiting a ‘Med Cram’ video on the subject, but in the meantime I believe it works by taking a virus similar to coronavirus; the one they’ve used gives chimps colds, but is not transmissible to humans. It is genetically modified by removing the virus’s reproductive mechanism so it cannot grow in humans, and by replacing the genes that produce its spike proteins that fit into the chimps cell receptors with genes that produce Coronavirus spike proteins, so that this empty shell can enter the human cell. Once inside this inert pseudo-virus displays the coronavirus spikes to the active immune system which generates antibodies that will fit them and be released to block any actual Coronavirus from entering the cell. The pseudo virus is then destroyed by the immune system, leaving just the antibodies in the blood and in the Memory T-Cells.

One possible problem this, and other vaccines may face, and this is just my layman’s opinion, is, if the innate immune system has been handling the bulk of the defence against Covid-19, killing infected cells that don’t register as normal, and I suspect it has, then people may have built up an immune system increasingly effective at killing Covid-19 infected cells before antibodies can be produced. Once the Coronavirus spiked pseudo virus is inside the cell, the cell may be killed before the active immune system has a chance to produce antibodies. However, in the elderly and those with weak innate immune systems that can’t manage this, the vaccine will come into its own and protect them. The upshot of this may be the elderly and weak are saved by vaccination, but the young and the strong may have to put up with catching it again and again until we reach herd immunity.

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Last edited by Beerman on Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Nov 21, 2020 11:21 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

The Med Cram video for the Oxford Vaccine, also known as the AstraZeneca Vaccine is up, and it clears up a lot of questions as to how it works.

To recap, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines work by genetically engineering Messenger RNA (mRNA) in a lab, then getting it into the cell for the cell's natural protein generating process to take over and produce Covid-19 protein spikes which the active immune system generates antibodies against.

The Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine works by genetically engineering the DNA in a similar virus to the Coronavirus, one that is not transmissible to humans so that the active immune system won't react to it. This is done by removing the carrier virus's reproduction instructions and inserting the elements of the coronavirus DNA that produce the protein spikes used to attach to the ACE-2 cell receptors. This is then inserted into the Cell’s Nucleus where the cell's process of making mRNA is used to naturally make the mRNA that will produce the Covid-19 protein spikes.

Both methods involve genetic engineering; Pfizer and Moderna vaccines make mRNA in a lab, the AstraZeneca vaccine customises DNA in a lab inside a Trojan Horse pseudo virus. The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines utilise the cells natural process to generate Covid-19 protein spikes from the artificial mRNA; the Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine utilises the natural processes in the cell to generate mRNA and Covid-19 protein spikes from the artificial DNA.

I still think the Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine sounds inherently safer because they are messing around with something that is basically an empty shell whereas the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines mess about with active mRNA. I would still like to know what the consequences are by accidently getting this genetic engineering wrong, especially in the mRNA.

A big difference between these vaccines is the storage temperatures. The Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine can be stored in a regular fridge. It's not clear what the impact on effectiveness or safety of getting the storage temperatures wrong with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines which have to be held at -80C and -20c respectively, both out of range for conventional freezers which operate at -18c. There will also have to be a warm up procedure before injection, what happens if it's left out too long?

Another big difference is the dosage. The Oxford AstraZeneca Vaccine requires a half dose followed by a full one 28 days later to give 90% protection against symptoms. This means it goes further, is cheaper, and combined with its higher storage temperature means it can be used as a global vaccine for rich and poor countries alike.

To explain why this half initial dose works in engineering terms, I would say it primes the system before you turn the pumps on. Or to put it another way, a full initial dose would activate the innate immune system, which kill off a lot of the cells carrying the vaccine, whereas a half dose is enough to signal to the active immune system to start making the antibodies, which takes a few days, without triggering the innate immune system in the meantime (just my layman's guess).

Another big difference is that the trials showed it prevented infection whereas this is unknown with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines because they missed measuring it on the trial plan.

Here's the video


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Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:36 am
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