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The Covid-19 Pandemic 
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Cases on the up

France is the latest country to be put on the UK list of ‘quarantine on return’ countries due to an increase in Covid-19 cases. This reflects the latest interesting turn the ever unfolding saga of understanding the Coronavirus has taken. So far, the increased cases, and they are significant, have yet to result in deaths, but there is obviously a delay between the two.

France’s cases from 14 Jul 20 to 14 Aug 20 went from 172,888 to 209,365 a rise of 36,477; up 21%.

Spain’s cases from 14 Jul 20 to 14 Aug 20 went from 283,192 to 355,856 a rise of 72,664; up 25%

If the 20-25% increase in cases results in significant numbers of deaths, then I think it’s safe to say France and Spain have not reached population immunity. If deaths do not increase dramatically, but rather continue to gently rise at a constant rate as they have been doing for a couple of months now, then I think that confirms France and Spain have reached population immunity.

France’s deaths from 14 Jul 20 to 14 Aug 20 went from 30,075 to 30,388 a rise of 313; up 1%.

Spain’s deaths from 14 Jul 20 to 14 Aug 20 went from 28,409 to 28,605 a rise of 196; up 0.7%

By comparison if we look at Italy which was 2 weeks ahead of us in the pandemic, we can get a feel for what’s coming in terms of deaths. Italy have had far fewer new cases than France and Spain, only 8,870 cases from 14 Jul 20 to 14 Aug 20, up just 3.6% instead of 20-25%; but they still had 247 deaths, a 0.7% increase, which is about the same percentage as France and Spain.

I talked earlier about Innate Immune System and how it can fight off low viral load infections. I also talked about the Adaptive Immune System and how we can get partial T-Cell immunity through cross immunity gained from past infections of the Common Cold. If we have population immunity then the UK, France, Spain and Italy can expect recurring cases independent of deaths at a death rate around 1% per month.

Look for deaths to rise in France by another 300-350 and in Spain by 200-250 by 14 Sep 20 and it could all be over.

Living with the Coronavirus in this partial non-antibody immune environment is going to be like catching a Cold again and again. Unfortunately this slow trickle of death is going to carry on until effective treatments are found that stop them, or a vaccine is rolled out. But to put 300 deaths per month into context, that’s 3,600 deaths per year compared with the UK’s 6,500 deaths from suicides, 38,000 from Strokes, 40,000 from renal failure, 60,500 from dementia, 165,000 from cancer and 170,000 from heart and circulatory disease.

If the Innate Immune System is our best friend, then as a layman I non-medically recommend taking Vitamin D. Do what though wilt and consult a doctor if you so wish, but I take 1000 IU of Vitamin D a day. It strengthens the immune system, and protects the endothelium that lines the blood vessels that Covid-19 damages as it passes into the blood stream. My experience with Vitamin D is I haven’t had a cold since I started taking it mid Mar 20.

I should add that, we haven’t factored in the additional deaths that can be expected over the next 1 to 5 years as a result of Coronavirus infiltration into the major organs. So expect increased heart attacks, lifelong injuries to the lungs, and blood clots leading to liver and renal failure, strokes and gastrointestinal tract disease.

We can also expect additional deaths arising from sick people with pre-existing undiagnosed conditions not being seen, diagnosed or treated due to the pandemic. I suspect we are talking in the region of many thousands in the UK.

My advice is to Keep calm and carry on, with a stiff upper lip, and a nice cup of tea whilst we wait to see if these deaths appear or not.

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Last edited by Beerman on Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:07 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Aug 14, 2020 2:38 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

New Russian Vaccine

I know it’s not important and probably only deserves 20 seconds or so on the mainstream news broadcasts and maybe a line or 2 on the mainstream news websites, but Russia has cleared a vaccine for Covid-19 for use.

I know I’ve said I’m concerned about any vaccine being rushed to market without long term testing to confirm it’s safe and will decline any offer of one until I’m happy it’s safe, especially as I think I’ve probably had it and am now immune anyway. I would certainly like to have an antibody test first although this wouldn’t prove I’ve not had it.

But you’d think a new Covid-19 vaccine might be of some interest, especially in countries like India, South Africa, Brazil, Peru, Columbia, Chile and Mexico where it’s nowhere near over, or even in the US which probably has 25,000 to 50,000 deaths to go, maybe more.

Now I’m not suggesting this ignoring of an elephant in the room is in any political because it’s Russia that has developed it, or has anything to do with the profit to be made by the pharmaceutical multinational corporations based in the US and Europe from selling a Covid-19 vaccine to the world. I know last year the top 6 Pharmaceuticals roughly made annual revenue from sales of between $45 billion and $50 billion, and the next 4 made between $25 billion and $35 billion. Ok, so that’s $365 billion a year from the top 10 and $1.3 trillion for the Pharmaceutical Industry as a whole, but they wouldn’t deliberately suppress a vaccine that would save tens of thousands of people for profit, I mean, that would be immoral.

I’m sure when the West do produce a vaccine, the politicians and the media will treat it with exactly the same indifference until it is proven safe. Thank god for our politicians and media.

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Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:05 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Population Immunity - Mid-Point Review

Earlier I looked at the deaths arising from the increase in cases from 14 Jul to 14 Aug. I looked at the deaths from this period which remained low and predicted that if the deaths did not significantly increase from 14 Aug to 14 Sep then the epidemic was most likely over in those countries.

From 14 Jul to 14 Aug France and Spain’s cases went up 20% to 25%, but their death rates by only 1.0% to 07% respectively. Italy’s cases rose by just 3.6% but also has a death rate of 0.7%

If by 14 Sep deaths in France have risen by around 320 and in Spain by 220, then I think could conclude that the innate immune system was doing its job, beating off reinfection, and the adaptive immune system was building population immunity thanks to T-Cell cross-immunity. The trickle of death we would then see, we would have to live with until it can be treated or vaccinated against.

Well, we are around the mid-point, so a quick peek is in order. From 14 Aug to 26 Aug we are looking for roughly 160 deaths in France, 110 deaths in Spain, and roughly the same in Italy and the UK.

France

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Cases = 41,376
Deaths = 139

Daily deaths were between 3 and 9 except for 1 day that registered 13 on 26 Aug 20

Spain

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Cases = 41,974
Deaths = 354

Daily deaths ranged from 12 to 25 with the exception of a single spike of 127 deaths on 19 Aug, and 99 deaths during a 2-day spike on 25-26 Aug 20.

Italy

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Cases = 9,731
Deaths = 70

Daily deaths ranged from 3 to 13 with no spikes and many death-free days.

UK

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Cases = 12,479
Deaths = 107

Daily deaths ranged from 3 to 18 with no spikes.


At the mid-point it looks promising. France, Italy, UK all look like our innate immune system can handle it now and/or we have reached population immunity.

Spain missed the target due to 2 outbreaks. Take these out of the equation and their deaths would have been 128, which is close enough to 110 to say it might also be over for them too.

I think Spain gives us another lesson to learn about Covid-19, that until there is a vaccine or treatment, it is going to get into nursing homes and like where the vulnerable live and where there is no immunity and it is going to wreak havoc, which is what I suspect has happened here. As the population immunity increases, the likelihood of this happening is going to get less, but there will always be one asymptomatic person that might bring it in.

But remember we are only at the mid-point,so don't get carried away. I’ll have a look again on 14 Sep 20. Then hopefully we can burn these damn facemasks.

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Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:44 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Population Immunity Review

Earlier I looked at Covid-19 deaths from cases between 14 Jul to 14 Aug and predicted that if the deaths from 14 Aug to 14 Sep did not significantly increase, then the epidemic was most likely over in France, Italy, Spain and UK.

Well, we are at the review point, so, from 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20 we’re looking for roughly is; 160 deaths in France, and 110 deaths in Spain, Italy and UK.

What we’ve got from 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20 is;

France: 545 deaths from 175,041 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 321 cases
Spain: 1,231 deaths from 201,973 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 164 cases
Italy: 236 deaths from 35,952 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 152 cases
UK: 279 deaths from 54,756 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 196 cases

France

From 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20: 545 deaths from 175,041 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 321 case

The majority of daily deaths were in the high teens to low 20s except for 4 separate days in the 30s and a spike of 80 on 11 Sep and 49 on 15 Sep, which I suspect are nursing homes, hospitals, or such like

Between 18 Mar 20 and 18 Apr 20, France saw its sharpest rise in cases, similar to the rise they are seeing now, they had 102,687 cases which resulted in 19,041 deaths. This gave a case fatality rate of 1 death for 5.4 cases

During the next 4 weekly period from 18 Apr 20 to 18 May 20, France saw 31,082 cases which resulted in 8,909 deaths. This gave a case fatality rate of 1 death for 3.4 cases

Add the two periods together and you get from 18 Mar 20 to 18 may 20, France had 133,769 cases resulting in 27,950 deaths, giving a case fatality rate of 1 death for 4.8 cases.

Although you can’t use case fatalities to indicate the death rate, because it depends on how many you test, you can use it comparatively with case fatalities from two different time periods, assuming you tested similar numbers during the two periods.

So clearly this 2nd wave of cases is not causing anywhere near the deaths the 1st wave caused. When France first saw this level of case rate rise, it experienced 1 death for every 5 cases, now it is experiencing 1 death for every 321 cases.

France should really look into these spikes of deaths they are letting happen I suspect it’s in places where Covid-19 vulnerable groups are living, as these spikes account for roughly half the deaths during this period.

There’s no denying loads more are getting infected and loads less are dying as a result. The question now is, at what level do the deaths level out and when? This coronavirus is full of surprises. I still think the crisis has passed for France even though I expected 160 deaths this period and got 545, that’s not a significant increase when compared with March to April’s and April to May’s deaths, which came from fewer cases.

Until a vaccine is rolled out, there’s always going to be a village somewhere that is going to have its first infection and spike the death rate a month later, or a clean nursing home where someone walks in with it due to lack of precautions. So we can expect the deaths to go up and down month by month, we just need to know by how much. Another month of monitoring is needed.

Here's a link to the data https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

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Last edited by Beerman on Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:59 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Spain

From 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20: 1,231 deaths from 201,973 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 164 cases.

The majority of daily deaths were in the 30s to low 40s but there were 5 spikes of 52, 47, 58, 78 and 71 and 3 significant spikes of 127, 184 and 156. There has just been an horrendous spike which although outside the date range so I haven’t counted it, but it has to be mentioned as it’s 239 dead on 16 Sep 20.

Spain’s cases have gone berserk. From the beginning of the Covid-19 outbreak they sort of plateaux at 250,000 cases, but actually gradually crept up to 270,00 cases over 3 months; and as of 14 Sep they stand at 593,730. Total cases have doubled from 300,000 to 600,000 since 22 July; even though the 1st case wasn’t recorded until February.

The deaths that resulted from the first 300,000 cases were 28,426. The death that resulted from the 2nd 300,000 cases were 1,578; or to put it another way, nearly 95% of the deaths came from the 1st 300,000 cases (28,354), and 5% came from the 2nd 300,000 cases (1,650).

Deaths from 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20 were 1,231. You have to go back to 21 Feb before the 1st death, to 21 Mar to get a 4-weekly death total as low as 1,231 deaths. During April, deaths rose from 9,387 to 24,543; and in May to 28,824.

The case fatality rate from 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20 was 1 death per 164 cases, this compares with 15,156 deaths from 74,110 cases, from 1 Apr to 1 May during its peak. Which was 1 death every 4.9 cases.

I think the crisis has passed for Spain even though I expected 110 deaths this period but got 1,231. You could still argue that 1,231 is not a significant 4-weekly increase when compared with the month of Apr which saw 15,156 deaths., but I would rather point to the sloppy care of the vulnerable that has been demonstrated by the numerous spikes in daily deaths.

467 died in 8 one-day spikes. If these came from nursing homes, then they people could have been kept safe until the vaccine is available. Take 467 that could have been saved from 1,231 that actually died and you get 764 deaths. Compare that with France that had 2 spikes totalling 95 deaths. Had these spikes been prevented, Spain would have had 764 deaths and France 450 deaths, and then the deaths are not that different.

The current upturn on the death’s chart is likely to be a blip caused by careless spikes. The worse case scenario is it could be a repetition of the curve at the start of the crises which was followed by ‘Horrendous April’, but my money is on the blip. Another month of monitoring is needed.

Here’s a link to the data; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

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Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:36 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Italy

From 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20: 236 deaths from 35,952 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 152 cases.

Daily deaths were in the 3 to 16 range, with most being under 10. There were no daily spikes in deaths.

Italy’s case fatality rate of 1 death per 152 cases, is slightly worse, but still close, to Spain’s 1 death per 164 cases, despite the two countries having different case and death profiles, and dramatically different numbers of new cases, Spain’s 202,000 compared with Italy’s 36,000.

It looks like 5 times more cases produces 5 times more deaths at a reasonably constant case fatality rate, meaning that some sort of steady state has been reached that indicated the effectiveness of the innate immune system to fight Covid-19 lethality.

Here’s a link to the data; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/



UK

From 14 Aug to 14 Sep 20; 279 deaths from 54,756 cases; case fatality rate is 1 death per 196 cases.

Daily deaths were roughly one third under 10, and 2 thirds between 10 and 20. There was one small spike of 32 on 08-Sep.

The shape of the daily case curve between 31 Aug and 14 Sep roughly mirrors that between 27 Mar and 11 Apr.

• From 27 Mar to 11 Apr when deaths were rising at the peak of the 1s wave, there were 10,443 deaths from 58,413 cases, Case fatality rate 1 death for every 5.6 cases.

• From 31 Aug to 14 Sep during the this so-called 2nd wave, there have been 136 deaths from 35,250 cases, Case fatality rate 1 death for every 259 cases, despite the curves being almost identical.

On the news today, the headline read:

Quote:
“UK risks new lockdown as COVID cases hit highest since May”.


Actually, if you ignore the spikes as being avoidable had someone said ‘you can’t let infected staff into nursing homes or they’ll kill the residents’, then the new cases are actually at the highest they’ve been since the beginning of the crisis.

The headline should have read:

Quote:
‘UK risks new COVID lockdown even though new cases have only resulted in 703 deaths, compared with the 27,323 deaths that occurred last time cases were at this level’.


Cases bottomed out on 04 Jul with 626 cases/day, bumbled along between 500 and 600, with a 1-day peak at 700 and a couple at 800, and started to rise again on 23 Jul with 769 cases/day, to today’s daily rate of 4,422 on 19 Sep.

Here’s a link to the data; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

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Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:15 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Conclusions

I’ll repost the 14 Aug to 14 Sep summary again, this time in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) order, worst to best;

1. Italy: 236 deaths, 35,952 cases; CFR 1 death per 152 cases

2. Spain: 1,231 deaths, 201,973 cases; CFR 1 death per 164 cases

3. UK: 279 deaths, 54,756 cases; CFR 1 death per 196 cases

4. France: 545 deaths, 175,041 cases; CFR 1 death per 321 cases

Remove the Spikes (wishful thinking)

If we assume death spikes were a result of lack of care and could have been avoided and we remove these deaths from the total then;

1. Italy (unchanged): 236 deaths, CFR 1 death per 152 cases.

2. UK (unchanged): 279 deaths, CFR 1 death per 196 cases

3. Spain: 764 deaths, 201,973 cases, CFR 1 death per 264 cases.

4. France: 416 deaths, 175,041 cases, CFR 1 death in 420 cases.


Case Fatality Rates during the Covid-19 peak


1. Spain: 1 death per 4.9 cases.

2. France: 1 death per 5.4 cases

3. UK: 1 death per 5.5 cases.

4. Italy: 1 death per 6.7 cases

The Case Fatality Rates at the peak of the crisis and now bear no resemblance. 1 death for every 4.9 to 6.7 cases compared with now at 1 death per 152 to 321 cases, even though there are similar levels of new cases.

Spain’s cases cannot be ignored. The last 400,000 cases have produced just 2,500 deaths.

A Reuter's news article on UK population immunity released today says it’s at just 6% based on tests for antibodies. If this is true, and I strongly doubt it is, then taking the data and conclusions I’ve just gone through, I’d put the headline slightly differently; ‘for every 196 people in the UK that get it, 195 will have an innate immune system strong enough to fight it off, because at 6% antibody levels, it clearly isn’t being fought of f by the adaptive immune system’.

I’ll admit as headlines go, it’s not as catchy. Maybe something snappier like; ‘What we are seeing is the innate immune system’s increasing ability to fight off the coronavirus’.

Maybe add; 'We are just going to have to rely on our innate immune system until there’s a treatment and a vaccine’.

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Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:44 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

I know what you are going to say;

‘Beerman, you said Case Fatality Rates (CFR) were only good for comparison because the cases depend on the amount of testing; the more you test, the more cases you detect. So CFRs are only comparable if the testing from the two periods is similar’.

Well, as is so often the case with the coronavirus, nothing is ever straight forward.

• During the 1st wave, only those sick enough to go to hospital were tested and those that had mild symptoms went undetected because they never went to the hospital.

• Post 1st wave, testing has been expanded to essential service workers, and to a limited extent, the general public.

If we look at the new daily cases, they will tell us the Positive-to-Covid results of the testing.

• For France we see two humps showing the 1st and 2nd waves, with the 2nd hump twice the height of the first, which is perhaps what you’d expect as a lot more testing was probably done during the 2nd wave, so more Positive-to-Covid results were found. Importantly, only 1,600 deaths (5%) resulted from this much larger 2nd wave of cases as opposed to the 28,000 (95%) deaths that resulted from the 1st wave of cases.

• For Italy, the daily cases are also shown as two humps but this time the 1st wave hump is 4 times higher than the 2nd wave hump. This could be because the 2nd wave hump has only started to take off and might eventually replicate France in being twice that of the 1st wave hump, I don’t think so. The shape of the 2nd wave hump is plateauing and is far more likely to shortly go down again. The 1st wave resulted in 35,000 deaths (99%), the 2nd wave only 300 (1%). The 2nd wave increased level of testing only confirmed that everyone had caught it in the 1st wave, probably due to the disastrous strategy of lockdown, where the old and vulnerable we confined to their homes along with young infected family members.

• For Spain, we have two equal height humps for the 1st and 2nd waves, with the 2nd wave hump having peaked and is now on the decline. The first wave resulted in 28,300 deaths (94%) and the 2nd wave in 1,700 deaths (6%).

• For the UK, the two humps are currently about the same size but the 2nd wave hump is still going up, so you can’t tell if it is going to carry on going up like France, plateau like Italy, or go down like Spain. The 1st wave resulted in about 40,000 deaths (96%) and the 2nd in 1,600 deaths (4%), bearing in mind the UK has changed the way it measures fatality rates so often now that no one knows the actual numbers anymore, or if they are comparable with other countries.

So, back to the question can we compare Case Fatality Rates? I think we can because in all cases by far the most people died in the 1st wave; France 95%, Italy 99%, Spain 94%, UK 96%) and the extra testing that came along later leading up to the 2nd wave has no affect on the low numbers of deaths that occurred in the 2nd wave.

Here's the links to the data again if you wanto check out the daily cases and deaths;

France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
Italy: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
Spain: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/
UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

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Last edited by Beerman on Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:09 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:38 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

To double check this preliminary conclusion that the pandemic is over for France, Italy, Spain and the UK, we need to compare deaths per million population. In worst to best order, as of 21 Sep 20 these are;

Spain 652 deaths/m
UK 615 deaths/m
Italy 591 deaths/m
France 479 deaths/m

These are based on cumulative deaths, so they are levelling out as Covid-19 dies out, and hopefully will one day soon they will stop rising altogether.

If we compare a month’s Population Fatality Rate (PDR) during the 1st wave with a month’s PDR during the 2nd wave for each country, these will be directly comparable as deaths from Covid-19 will be defined the same for each country and their population doesn’t change.

Comparing Population Fatality Rates

• Spain, pop 47m:

1st wave from 01 Apr to 01 May there were 15,156 deaths, giving a PFR of 322 deaths/m

2nd wave from 14 Aug – 14 Sep there were 1,231 deaths, giving a PFR of 26 deaths/m

• UK, pop 67m:

1st wave from 01 Apr to 01 May there were 24,237 deaths, giving a PFR of 362 deaths/m

2nd wave from 14 Aug to 14 Sep: there were 279 deaths, giving a PFR of 4 deaths/m

• Italy, 60m

1st wave from 20 Mar to 20 Apr there were 20,130 deaths, giving a PFR of 335 deaths/m

2 wave from 14 Aug to 14 Sep there were 236 deaths, giving a PFR of 4 deaths/m

• France, pop 67m:

1st wave from 18 Mar 20 to 18 Apr 20 there were 19,041 deaths, giving a PFR of 284 deaths/m

2nd wave from 14 Aug to 14 Sep there were 545 deaths, giving a PFR of 8 deaths/m.


The average Population Fatality Rate during the 1st wave was 328 deaths/m and during the 2nd wave it was only 10.5 deaths/m.

I know the data over the next month could still surprise us but, I doubt it will. I’ll look at the data again on 14 Oct 20, but I suspect it will confirm what the data is saying now, that For France, Italy, Spain and UK, it’s over and we just have to live with the trickle of deaths for now.

What we shouldn’t be doing is even thinking about another lockdown for 4 reasons

1. It will destroy our economy leading to poverty, homelessness and more deaths than any Covid-19 2nd wave would ever have caused.

2. Lockdown didn’t work in the first place. It was a bad strategy to begin with and only served to cause more deaths than if Covid-19 had run its course without intervention. Without shielding of the old and vulnerable, lockdowns proved fatal and might do so again, resulting in more unnecessary deaths.

3. It will further hinder population immunity before the onset of the flu season.

4. It will destroy our entertainment industries which will trash our quality of life.

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Mon Sep 21, 2020 10:32 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Sweden

Let’s visit our trusty backstop Sweden, the country that answers the question ‘What would have happened if we hadn’t locked down?’ Although Sweden has a low-ish population of 10m, it is fairly concentrated in the not-so-frozen south.

As of 14 Sep, Sweden has had 88,237 cases resulting in 5,860 deaths, giving a Population Fatality Rate of 580 deaths/m, lower than France, Spain, Italy and the UK.

Looking at the daily cases we see the now familiar twin humps of 1st and 2nd waves but there is no gap between them. Really it’s one hump in 2 phases. If you look at the total cases curve it’s definitely 2 curves showing 2 phases with the 2nd phase being at a far less steep gradient that the 1st. There is a 2nd wave that follows on from Phase 2 of the 1st wave. It displays a sort of steady state, trickle of cases that go up and down like a wave.

The 1st wave, phase 1 of cases ended around 24 May.

The 1st wave phase 2 of cases ran from 24 May to 7 July

The 2nd wave of cases slowly rose from 7 July to 9 Aug, then slowly fell to 31 Aug, then slowly rose again to 16 Sep, almost like it’s breathing, with the average around 300 cases a day.

Interestingly the 2 waves of cases form a smooth curve of cumulative deaths despite the 1st wave being in 2 distinct phases, as fatalities rise to 5,400, then taper off to 400 and finally to 60, which I think reflects Sweden’s non-interventionist approach.

It’s actually quite difficult to see where the waves and the phases of cases transition on the death curve because it is so smooth, but there seems to be a month delay in cases materialising as deaths, so taking the number of deaths from where the waves and phases of cases transition + 1 month, we get;

• The 1st wave, phase 1 of deaths ended 24 June with 5,400.deaths (92%).

• The 1st wave phase 2 of deaths ran to 7 Aug with 400 deaths (7%).

• The 2nd wave of deaths ran to 14 Sep with 60 deaths (1%). Daily deaths ranged from 1 to 8.

Comparing Population Fatality Rates

If we take 1 month of deaths from each of Swedens1st wave phases and 1 month of deaths from its 2nd wave, and we compare them with UK, Italy, Spain, and France we get;

• UK 1st wave PFR of 362 deaths/m, 2nd wave PFR of 4 deaths/m

• Italy 1st wave PFR of 335 deaths/m, 2 wave PFR of 4 deaths/m

• Spain 1st wave; PFR of 322 deaths/m, 2nd wave; PFR of 26 deaths/m

• France 1st wave PFR of 284 deaths/m, 2nd wave PFR of 8 deaths/m.

• Sweden 1st wave phase 1 PFR of 213 deaths/m, 1st wave Phase 2 PFR of 25 deaths/m, and 2nd wave PFR of 6 deaths/m

By not intervening in the natural progress of coronavirus infections, except for taking some sensible basic precautions, but certainly not by instigating lockdowns, Sweden has fared better that UK, Italy, Spain and France; and has not trashed its economy.

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Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:37 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

The 10pm Curfew on Pubs and Restaurants

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has just announced a 10pm curfew on the hospitality sector. This is the worse decision he could have made at this time. Pubs and restaurants are going to have to be closed by 10pm, which means last orders by 9pm and lights out by 10pm. It’s outrageous, it’s moronic, it’s unnecessary. It threatens to put millions of hospitality workers and people in the supply chain out of work. Pubs and restaurants have barely clawed their way back to a breakeven point, let alone made any profit, and this will be the end for many of them.

I believe this decision has been made for political reasons. I suspect there is a lot of middle aged and old aged voters out there that are not regular pub and restaurant users, scared to death behind their face masks, that want the government to do something, anything, to make them feel everything is going to be alright. The Prime Minister is pandering to these people but he doesn’t realise that when they, or members of their family, or friends, lose their jobs, they will blame him for it and conveniently forget it was they that prompted him to do it.

But, I am so sick of the medical profession advising the zero risk option every time, just so that politicians and doctors can’t be blamed for anything. Well they can be blamed for driving millions of people into poverty and many into despair, and the consequences that come from their actions. I thought those in the medical profession were meant to do no harm?

I sat through a 20 minute broadcast yesterday with the UK Chief Scientific Advisor and the Chief Medical Advisor, sat at a high table like 2 barons, passing down their decrees to us commoners below the salt, putting up various graphs to explain their advice given to the Prime Minister. It was a tough 20 minutes for me to sit through. Their advice was largely based on the rise in cases. As I have discussed here in this thread, cases are good, deaths are bad; and there have been very small numbers of deaths.

Graph after graph showed the rise in cases, which, if they looked at France, Spain and Italy, is what they should have expected and should have welcomed, along with the drop in case fatuities from 1 death per 5.5 cases to 1 death per 196 cases; and in population fatalities down from 362 deaths/m to 4 deaths/m (measured from 1 month samples taken from 1st and 2nd waves of the outbreak).

They hardly mentioned deaths at all. On the occasion they did, they put up a graph, it showed a rise in deaths that started around 14 Sep, but when you looked at it; they had adjusted the scale to make a small molehill look like a mountain.

UK cases bottomed out around 11 Jul and stayed low, typically below 800 a day, until 8 Aug, then they started to rise as the 2nd wave began. This 2nd wave was fully expected when you look at the data from France, Spain and Italy. Today they stand at 4,926 cases, which again, is fully expected from the other country’s data. From 11 Jul deaths were below 30 a day (ignoring the odd spike), and typically in the low teens, and as expected, started to rise as the cases rose, allowing for a time lag. In the last 9 days from the 14 Sep to 22 Sep, there have been 9, 27, 20, 21, 27, 27, 18, 11 and 37 daily, which are fully expected as the 2nd wave cases continue to build, and continue to show the low death rate that is expected.

The advice given by the Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Witty doesn’t appear to be supported by the data from other similar countries like France, Spain, and Italy. If it is, then what is the rationale behind his advice? Why does he not think the 2nd wave is happening in the UK along the lines it has already happened in these countries?

OK, I can understand we need to wait and confirm that, but why risk ruining so many livelihoods with such a premature decision? The very least the government should do is subsidise the pubs and restaurants and furlough their staff until they get the courage to make the right decision.

Honestly, it makes me mad the catalogue of bad advice the medical profession has given the government during this pandemic. When this is all done there needs to be an enquiry into this fiasco and the competence of the individuals involved investigated. Everything from disastrous lockdown strategies, to ridiculous epidemiology modelling, to not quarantining nursing homes, to lack of shielding of the vulnerable in hospitals and at home, to ineffective intensive care treatment, to lack of home self-help treatment, to the lack of attention paid to population immunity and achieving it. Take about 'carry on doctor'.




Here’s a link to the UK daily cases and deaths; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

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Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:54 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Message from the Government

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Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:39 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

One of the problems we have talking about Covid-19 is terminology. By 2nd wave, some mean a 2nd wave of cases and some mean a 2nd wave of deaths. Some mix them up and talk about a 2nd wave in terms of cases, and then in terms of deaths, which is what Prof Heneghan does at the end of his interview below. Cases and deaths are linked of course, the more cases, the more likely there will be more deaths arising from them, but just for clarity, I refer to a 2nd wave of cases in this thread, which is why I said the second wave is already happening, it's just that no one has noticed it yet because the deaths are so low.

Here's an interview dated 14 Sep 20 with Prof Carl Heneghan from oxford university, one of the more sensible academics.


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Last edited by Beerman on Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:14 am, edited 2 times in total.



Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:10 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Academics that talk common sense are like buses; you wait for 6 months for one to come along, then two come along at once.



The problem the common-sense academics have is that the ones that have advised lockdowns, now face loss of face and reputation if they are proved wrong, so they are doubling down on their lockdown advice. It would be a brave politician to go against medical advice, and they are not going to do it. Plus you have the media and the opposition political parties that are ready to pounce. If there is no vaccine, and there may not be, then we could be facing a future of never-ending lockdowns, economic collapse and poverty.

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Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:37 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Vitamin D (again)

I've already talked about Vitamin D and even gone so far as to recommend it as a ‘nothing to lose’ option;

Quote:
If it is the case that the Innate Immune System is our best friend, then as a layman I non-medically recommend taking Vitamin D. Do what though wilt and consult a doctor if you so wish, but I take 1000 IU of Vitamin D a day. It strengthens the immune system, and protects the endothelium that lines the blood vessels that Covid-19 damages as it passes into the blood stream. My experience with Vitamin D is I haven’t had a cold since I started taking it mid Mar 20.


The first Vitamin D trial has been conducted in Spain using 76 consecutive covid-19 admissions into hospital, and although a low population of subjects was used, it was conducted correctly and produced some good results.



It’s a shame there wasn’t enough subjects to allow for 2 equal sized groups of 50, instead they had to split them into a group of 50 to receive Vitamin D, and a control group of 26 not to receive Vitamin D. It’s a shame both groups weren’t bigger. This leaves us guessing with regards to the deaths in the control group. If there were 2 deaths out of 26, do we have enough data to assume a rate of 1 death out of 13 cases, and that if the group had comprised of 50, would there have been 4 deaths?

If we compare this control group death rate with Spain’s monthly death rate during the height of the 1st wave, which was 1 death for every 4.9 cases, I suggest not; and this is further supported by zero deaths in the Vitamin D group, which is too good to be true and suggests the group did not have anyone in it with sufficiently serious underlining medical conditions or vulnerability. The ICU staff, as good as they were, did not perform miracles, and I don’t think anyone is suggesting Vitamin D is a miracle cure; we need a bigger trial. But my word, some good results; 50% of the non-Vitamin D patients had Covid-19 that escalated to them needing intensive care, compared with only 2% that took the Vitamin D.

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Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:11 am
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

I was going to do an update but nothing has really changed regarding the spread of the virus, or the strategy for tackling it by the government, driven by a band of scientists that have given the wrong advice regarding lockdowns, protection of the vulnerable, home instead of hospital support of patients and denial of population (herd) immunity. In fact, these advisers are ecurrently doubling down on their past advice, and have managed to get the North of Enlgland and London shut down again.

Last week 3 of the top scientists in the field issues a declaration along the lines that I have been advocating, that we should have pursued population immunity from the outset whilst shielding the vulnerable until it was reached. It's not received a lot of coverage by the mainstream media as you'd expect, but here it is;



If you want to check out the latest data on the 2nd wave of deaths, here's the graphs, just scroll down to Daily Deaths to see the negligible impact the 2nd wave is currently having on the over 65s, then scroll up to the Daily New Cases to see the huge number of cases that are causing these negligible numbers of deaths.

What the hell, I'll do a quick summary anyway

France https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Daily Cases currently 30,261, Daily Deaths currently 88; that's 1 death per 344 cases, which is up slightly from my last update of 1 death for every 321 cases, so slightly better, but only by 23 cases; the death rate is about the same and confirms the number of cases now needed in the 2nd wave to cause 1 death appears constant.

Spain https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

Daily Cases currently 13,318, Daily Deaths currently 140; that's 1 death per 95 cases. My last update gave 1 death for every 164 cases, which means 69 fewer cases are now needed to cause a death, but not is all as it seems. If you look at Spain's Daily Deaths graph you'll see there is no upward slope of deaths; no increase in death rate. The Death rate is constant with the increase in deaths resulting from recurring spikes in deaths, in particular 6 spikes between 200 and 260 deaths, which suggests individual incidents caused by sloppy shielding in care homes and hospitals.

UK https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Daily Cases currently 18,980, Daily Deaths currently 138; that's 1 death per 138 cases, My last update gave 1 death for every 196 cases, which means 58 fewer cases are now needed to cause a death, better than Spain, worse than France, only a small increase in the death rate; but no spikes in deaths to account for it.

Italy https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Daily Cases currently 8,804, Daily Deaths currently 83; that's 1 death per 106 cases, My last update gave 1 death for every 152 cases, which means 46 fewer cases are now needed to cause a death.

Putting them in best to worse order

France: 1 death per 344 cases
UK 1 death per 138 cases
Italy 1 death per 106 cases
Spain 1 death per 95 cases

Deaths per million

Spain 652 deaths/m on 21 Sep, to 718 deaths/m today; up 66 deaths/m
France 479 deaths/m on 21 Sep to 507 deaths/m today; up 28 deaths/m
UK 615 deaths/m on 21 Sep to 637 deaths/m today; up 22 deaths/m
Italy 591 deaths/m on 21 Sep to 602 deaths/m today, up 11 deaths/m

I hope the insignificant number of deaths hasn't escaped anyone reading this. The consequences of locking down half of England to tackle an additional 22 people in every million from dying, who are nearly all going to be over 70, and most over 80, is perhaps disproportionate. In England in 2019, there were 114 deaths per million suicides, most in the North of England where the lockdown has been imposed. In 2019 there were 5,691 suicides in England and Wales, 4303 were men, that's 169 deaths per million. What's it going to be in 2020 and 2021 Boris?

Just to put it further into perspective, if we take the start of the 2nd wave as being 01 Aug 2020 at which point there were 41,171 deaths. With 43,293 being the toll on 15 Oct 20, that makes the current death rate for the 2nd wave about 32 deaths/m.

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Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:38 pm
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Post Re: The Covid-19 Pandemic

Let’s make some predictions

Why? Because we need to know the number of additional deaths we can expect if we continue to lockdown the symptomless infected young with the unshielded old.

Spain

If we look at the Daily New Cases in Spain we may possibly be looking at the shape of the 2nd wave curve starting to form. Daily cases appear to be past their peak and are on the way down, save a few recent, hopefully erroneous high numbers. If those new high numbers turn out to be part of a much broader 2nd wave curve then this will affect the predicted end date of the 2nd wave.

With a 2nd wave peaking on 22 Sep 20 at 12,000 cases a day, and ignoring the last 3 daily case figures, we can extrapolate the second half of the curve to predict the end of the 2nd wave to mid December 2020. If the last 3 daily case are part of the curve, then the extrapolation takes it to mid January 2021. So, we will have to wait and see what the data tells us as to which direction the curve goes in the next few days or so

If we look at the total cases in Spain and we extrapolate the curve to reach horizontal in January 2021, then we can estimate total of 1,300,000 cases signalling the end of the 2nd wave. Currently Spain is at around 982,000 cases, so 318,000 cases to go.

As I've said many times I'm not a great fan of estimating deaths using case fatality and during the 1st wave when it was based on hospital admissions it was practically useless. Although testing has improved for the 2nd wave, I still regard it as unreliable, simply because the number of cases, unlike deaths per population, can't be verified. That aside, currently the 2nd wave in Spain is generating 1 death per 95 cases, the worse of the 4 sample countries. If that continues, Spain is looking at another 7,000 deaths.

If we look at the Total Deaths chart, and we draw a vertical line to show the end date of end January 2021, and we assume a near horizontal approach to this end point as herd immunity increases, then we get a predicted most likely death toll of 40,000, with a maximum of 45,000.

If the end date for the 2nd wave is mid December, then the death toll will be most likely 38,000 with a maximum of 40,000 deaths.

Spain's current death toll is about 34,000, so there are between 4,000 and 6,000 elderly Spanish people that could be saved by shielding.

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